Ward D

Last week, municipal elections took place across Alberta. I was involved in one campaign and was very interested in two others. Late last week, the official results were released so, of course, I had to map the results to see how my three candidates did. In this post, I'll look at the race in which I was involved: the race for EPSB councillor for Ward D.

When I say I was involved in this campaign, I should say I only provided some suggestions for where to campaign. I don't actually live in Ward D and I was dealing with the declining health of my dad so didn't have time to actually be out on the campaign trail. I also prefer being hidden away running numbers than actually dealing with people.

This campaign was interesting in that my candidate initially saw herself as the progressive choice and wanted to target voters likely to vote NDP. Then, her competition was announced and it was the former leader of the Alberta NDP. Still, I made recommendations of where to campaign based on voter turnout and the number of possible votes in an area. I also had suggestions about where to remind people that the competition was a former NDP leader. On election night, the results were disappointing.

Officially, my candidate captured 39% of the vote. The map above shows that my candidate lost in every polling station except two and one of those was one vote to none. I had been hopeful of a win since my candidate says she had the large majority of signs on private property and her competition just seemed to be resting on his laurels. It appears my suggestions about where to canvass didn't have much impact as my candidate lost the polling stations around her home where she's active in her children's schools and in the community. I'm not sure where the competition lives but, if you cannot win your own neighbourhood, there doesn't seem to be much hope. I had hoped there would be a competition for signs on private property and I could analyze those data to update my suggestions on where to canvass but with the two candidates running different strategies about placing signs on private property, the analysis seemed useless.

I am only consoled but the turnout results from the mayoral race which I use as an approximation to the turnout for this race. It's difficult to compare the municipal, provincial, and federal election results due to the different boundaries but the turnout is roughly the same for the latest election at all three levels. The consistent turnout means I gave my candidate some good advice about where to canvass. My advice about where to canvass based the federal NDP numbers and my candidate's previous run for an elected Senate nomination didn't seem to help as there doesn't appear to be any relationship between those results and the municipal election results.

My next post will look at the race for city councillor in my own Ward.